PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Let's Go Areena

Jukurit — Karpat

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:1 OTCame true
Jukurit39%
Draw in regulation22%
Karpat38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Jukurit to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Jukurit 50%, Karpat 50% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.5.
  • Jukurit: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jukurit — Karpat2.5–2.5
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Jukurit
  • Jukurit goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Jukurit

  • 09.10away · KooKoo1:4
  • 07.10Assat0:1
  • 03.10KalPa2:1 OT
  • 29.09away · Ilves2:3
  • 26.09away · KooKoo5:3

Karpat

  • 09.10away · Pelicans3:2 OT
  • 07.10Kiekko-Espoo8:7 OT
  • 03.10away · Hameenlinna1:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:1
  • 30.09SaiPa4:1

Head to head

  • 20.02.2026Jukurit — Karpat5:4
  • 20.12.2025Karpat — Jukurit3:2 SO
  • 12.11.2025Karpat — Jukurit4:3 SO
  • 10.10.2025Jukurit — Karpat6:3
  • 25.01.2025Jukurit — Karpat2:3

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • JYPKarpat16 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7
  • JukuritTappara17 October · Liiga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaKooKoo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.1
  • JokeritIlves
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.4.9
  • TapparaTPS Turku
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • IFK HelsinkiKalPa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →