AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · FirstOntario Centre
Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:5Came true
In short
Final score 2:5: the model's most likely outcome, Toronto Marlies to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Hamilton Hammers 50%, Toronto Marlies 50% including overtime.
The model expects plenty of goals: 6.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 67%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.2 and 3.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies | 3.2–3.2 | |
| Hamilton Hammers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Toronto Marlies to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 67% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Hamilton Hammers
- Hamilton Hammers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10away · Toronto Marlies3:5
- 03.10away · Belleville Senators5:2
- 10.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:4 SO
- 03.10Hamilton Hammers5:3
- 03.10away · Rochester Americans1:3
- 20.06Chicago Wolves4:3
- 19.06Chicago Wolves3:4 OT
Head to head
- 10.10.2026Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10.2026Toronto Marlies — Hamilton Hammers5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 7 | Toronto Marlies | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 8 | Hershey Bears | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 23 | Hamilton Hammers | 4 | 1 | -3 | 3 | .375 |
| 24 | Abbotsford Canucks | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
Next matches
- Hamilton HammersRochester Americans17 October · AHL47532The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:46.3
- Belleville SenatorsToronto Marlies17 October · AHL43572The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →