AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Hamilton Hammers — Rochester Americans
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Close to a coin flip: Hamilton Hammers 47%, Rochester Americans 53% including overtime.
The model expects plenty of goals: 6.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 65%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.1 and 3.2.
Facts
- League table: Hamilton Hammers — No. 23, 3 pts; Rochester Americans — No. 14, 5 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Hamilton Hammers: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hamilton Hammers — Rochester Americans | 3.1–3.2 | |
| Hamilton Hammers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Rochester Americans to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 65% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Hamilton Hammers
- Hamilton Hammers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Toronto Marlies2:5
- 10.10Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10away · Toronto Marlies3:5
- 03.10away · Belleville Senators5:2
- 11.10away · Utica Comets1:2
- 10.10Syracuse Crunch7:1
- 04.10away · Belleville Senators2:3 SO
- 03.10Toronto Marlies3:1
- 26.04away · Toronto Marlies2:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 14 | Rochester Americans | 4 | 2 | +6 | 5 | .625 |
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 23 | Hamilton Hammers | 4 | 1 | -3 | 3 | .375 |
| 24 | Abbotsford Canucks | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
AHL on the same day
- 40602The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.9
- 69311The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.5
- 42582The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.7
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
- 48522The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.5
- 38622The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
- 51491The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:26.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →