Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
IFK Helsinki — Ilves
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ilves are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.
Why
- Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: IFK Helsinki — Ilves | 2.3–2.6 | |
| IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 42% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap IFK Helsinki
- IFK Helsinki goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10KalPa6:1
- 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
- 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
- 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
- 25.09JYP3:4
- 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
- 09.10Lukko1:5
- 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
- 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
- 29.09Jukurit3:2
Head to head
- 10.01.2026Ilves — IFK Helsinki6:0
- 09.01.2026IFK Helsinki — Ilves1:0
- 11.10.2025IFK Helsinki — Ilves6:1
- 10.10.2025Ilves — IFK Helsinki3:0
- 18.01.2025IFK Helsinki — Ilves1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ilves | 12 | 8 | +12 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | KalPa | 11 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | IFK Helsinki | 11 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15, Relegation play-off | Vaasan Sport | 11 | 3 | -11 | 13 |
Liiga on the same day
- JukuritLukkopreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- JYPTapparapreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.6
- KarpatHameenlinnapreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
- Kiekko-EspooTPS Turkupreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
- KooKooAssatpreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- PelicansSaiPapreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →