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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku

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Model prediction for 28 October

Kiekko-Espoo48%
Draw in regulation22%
TPS Turku30%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kiekko-Espoo are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • Kiekko-Espoo are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Kiekko-Espoo — No. 7, 20 pts; TPS Turku — No. 11, 16 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kiekko-Espoo 3 wins, TPS Turku 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku2.7–2.2
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kiekko-Espoo
  • Kiekko-Espoo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 09.10JYP6:1
  • 07.10away · Karpat7:8 OT
  • 03.10away · Ilves4:6
  • 02.10Karpat1:3
  • 30.09TPS Turku4:2

TPS Turku

  • 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
  • 03.10JYP4:1
  • 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
  • 27.09away · Ilves2:3
  • 25.09away · Jokerit2:1

Head to head

  • 30.09.2026Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku4:2
  • 27.12.2025Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku8:1
  • 26.12.2025TPS Turku — Kiekko-Espoo0:1
  • 03.12.2025TPS Turku — Kiekko-Espoo5:0
  • 12.11.2025Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku2:4

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko12611431–26+521
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiIlvespreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • JukuritLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • JYPTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.6
  • KarpatHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • KooKooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • PelicansSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →