Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Karpat — Hameenlinna
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Karpat are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.
Why
- Karpat are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Karpat — Hameenlinna | 2.8–2.1 | |
| Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 62% | |
| Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 38% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 41% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Karpat
- Karpat goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
- 09.10away · Pelicans3:2 OT
- 07.10Kiekko-Espoo8:7 OT
- 03.10away · Hameenlinna1:2 OT
- 02.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:1
Head to head
- 03.10.2026Hameenlinna — Karpat2:1 OT
- 07.03.2026Hameenlinna — Karpat6:3
- 06.03.2026Hameenlinna — Karpat3:2 OT
- 18.10.2025Karpat — Hameenlinna1:2
- 17.10.2025Karpat — Hameenlinna5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Assat | 12 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Karpat | 13 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | JYP | 10 | 7 | +5 | 21 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Tappara | 11 | 5 | +8 | 19 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 11 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
Liiga on the same day
- IFK HelsinkiIlvespreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
- JukuritLukkopreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- JYPTapparapreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.6
- Kiekko-EspooTPS Turkupreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
- KooKooAssatpreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- PelicansSaiPapreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →