AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Wells Fargo Arena
Iowa Wild — Rockford IceHogs
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:3Came true
In short
Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Iowa Wild to win (52% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Iowa Wild 52%, Rockford IceHogs 48% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.7.
- Iowa Wild: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Iowa Wild 2 wins, Rockford IceHogs 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Iowa Wild — Rockford IceHogs | 2.8–2.7 | |
| Iowa Wild to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Rockford IceHogs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 51% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 49% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Iowa Wild
- Iowa Wild goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10Rockford IceHogs1:2
- 04.10away · Texas Stars4:3 SO
- 03.10away · Texas Stars3:4 SO
- 19.04Manitoba Moose1:6
- 18.04Manitoba Moose3:2 SO
- 10.10away · Iowa Wild2:1
- 04.10Milwaukee Admirals1:3
- 19.04away · Texas Stars1:5
- 18.04away · Texas Stars1:6
- 12.04away · Chicago Wolves2:4
Head to head
- 10.10.2026Iowa Wild — Rockford IceHogs1:2
- 11.04.2026Rockford IceHogs — Iowa Wild4:5
- 05.04.2026Rockford IceHogs — Iowa Wild0:4
- 04.04.2026Iowa Wild — Rockford IceHogs2:5
- 30.03.2026Iowa Wild — Rockford IceHogs3:4 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
| 16 | Iowa Wild | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | .625 |
| 17 | Springfield Thunderbirds | 4 | 2 | -1 | 5 | .625 |
| 25 | Texas Stars | 4 | 1 | -6 | 3 | .375 |
| 26 | Rockford IceHogs | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | .333 |
| 27 | Henderson Silver Knights | 3 | 1 | -3 | 2 | .333 |
Next match
- Rockford IceHogsIowa Wild17 October · AHL51491The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
- 49512The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:2Final score 6:2. Model's score: 2:3.4.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →