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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Veikkaus Arena

Jokerit — Ilves

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Model prediction and result

0:3Came true
Jokerit24%
Draw in regulation21%
Ilves55%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Ilves to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.

Ilves are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.0.
  • Ilves: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jokerit — Ilves2.0–2.9
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)32%
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)68%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
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  • Jokerit goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Jokerit

  • 08.10IFK Helsinki3:2 OT
  • 03.10away · SaiPa2:3
  • 02.10away · Tappara2:3 OT
  • 29.09Hameenlinna3:0
  • 26.09away · Kiekko-Espoo1:4

Ilves

  • 09.10Lukko1:5
  • 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
  • 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
  • 29.09Jukurit3:2
  • 27.09TPS Turku3:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport11312520–31-1113
16, Relegation play-offJokerit13212825–42-1710
17, RelegationKooKoo121011025–52-274

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • JokeritAssat16 October · Liiga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • HameenlinnaIlves16 October · Liiga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaKooKoo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.1
  • JukuritKarpat
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 3:2.5.0
  • TapparaTPS Turku
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • IFK HelsinkiKalPa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →