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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Jukurit — Lukko

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Model prediction for 28 October

Jukurit30%
Draw in regulation23%
Lukko47%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lukko are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • Lukko are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jukurit — Lukko2.1–2.5
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Jukurit
  • Jukurit goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Jukurit

  • 10.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 09.10away · KooKoo1:4
  • 07.10Assat0:1
  • 03.10KalPa2:1 OT
  • 29.09away · Ilves2:3

Lukko

  • 09.10away · Ilves5:1
  • 03.10Assat2:5
  • 02.10away · Assat3:0
  • 26.09away · KalPa2:1
  • 24.09Tappara3:2

Head to head

  • 25.02.2026Lukko — Jukurit2:1
  • 05.01.2026Jukurit — Lukko1:2
  • 28.11.2025Lukko — Jukurit1:0
  • 14.11.2025Jukurit — Lukko2:3
  • 19.02.2025Jukurit — Lukko1:3

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiIlvespreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • JYPTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.6
  • KarpatHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • Kiekko-EspooTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KooKooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • PelicansSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →