Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
JYP — Tappara
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tappara are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: JYP — Tappara | 2.7–2.9 | |
| JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap JYP
- JYP goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Kiekko-Espoo1:6
- 08.10away · SaiPa2:1
- 03.10away · TPS Turku1:4
- 02.10away · Hameenlinna1:2
- 25.09away · IFK Helsinki4:3
Head to head
- 11.03.2026JYP — Tappara2:3 OT
- 18.02.2026Tappara — JYP4:1
- 03.12.2025Tappara — JYP6:3
- 26.09.2025JYP — Tappara4:3
- 08.01.2025JYP — Tappara6:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Karpat | 13 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | JYP | 10 | 7 | +5 | 21 |
| 6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Tappara | 11 | 5 | +8 | 19 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
Liiga on the same day
- IFK HelsinkiIlvespreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
- JukuritLukkopreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- KarpatHameenlinnapreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
- Kiekko-EspooTPS Turkupreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
- KooKooAssatpreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- PelicansSaiPapreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →