Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, 20:30 MSK

KalPa — Jokerit

Model prediction for 30 October

KalPa61%

Draw in regulation20%

Jokerit20%

Model estimate at 05:23 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

KalPa are clear favourites: 73% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

KalPa are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 1.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: KalPa — Jokerit		3.1–1.9
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)		73%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		27%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap KalPa
KalPa goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

KalPa

10.10away · IFK Helsinki1:6
09.10Tappara2:3
03.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
02.10SaiPa4:3
26.09Lukko1:2

Jokerit

10.10Ilves0:3
08.10IFK Helsinki3:2 OT
03.10away · SaiPa2:3
02.10away · Tappara2:3 OT
29.09Hameenlinna3:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24–23	+1	16
13, Relegation play-off	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27–29	-2	13
14, Relegation play-off	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31–34	-3	13
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20–31	-11	13
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	13	2	1	2	8	25–42	-17	10
17, Relegation	KooKoo	12	1	0	1	10	25–52	-27	4

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

19:30
AssatIFK Helsinkipreliminary
5743
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
19:30
HameenlinnaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
4456
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
19:30
LukkoKooKoopreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
19:30
SaiPaJYPpreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
19:30
TapparaIlvespreliminary
5743
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
19:30
TPS TurkuPelicanspreliminary
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →