KHL · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Platinum Arena
Khabarovsk — Niznekamsk
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1:0Missed
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Niznekamsk to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Khabarovsk 49%, Niznekamsk 51% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.4.
Facts
- Niznekamsk: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Khabarovsk 5 wins, Niznekamsk 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Khabarovsk — Niznekamsk | 2.4–2.4 | |
| Khabarovsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Niznekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 38% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 62% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Khabarovsk
- Khabarovsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 25.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl3:1
- 23.09CSKA Moscow0:2
- 21.09Cherepovets1:4
- 19.09Dynamo Moscow4:0
- 12.09away · Barys Astana3:1
- 27.09away · Vladivostok5:3
- 26.09away · Barys Astana6:3
- 23.09Lada7:3
- 20.09away · Magnitogorsk2:6
- 18.09away · Salavat Ufa0:2
Head to head
- 03.03.2026Khabarovsk — Niznekamsk3:1
- 01.03.2026Khabarovsk — Niznekamsk3:2
- 09.10.2025Niznekamsk — Khabarovsk1:4
- 07.10.2025Niznekamsk — Khabarovsk1:2
- 02.03.2025Khabarovsk — Niznekamsk4:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | SKA St. Petersburg | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Khabarovsk | 15 | 8 | +2 | 17 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Salavat Ufa | 15 | 8 | -1 | 17 |
Next matches
- YekaterinburgKhabarovsk2 October · KHL68321The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
- NiznekamskBarys Astana2 October · KHL64361The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9
KHL on the same day
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:5Final score 6:5. Model's score: 4:1.4.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →