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KHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · UMMC Arena

Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Yekaterinburg55%
Draw in regulation21%
Khabarovsk23%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Yekaterinburg to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.

Yekaterinburg are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • Yekaterinburg are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk2.7–1.8
Yekaterinburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)68%
Khabarovsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)32%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Yekaterinburg
  • Yekaterinburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Yekaterinburg

  • 30.09Lada3:1
  • 26.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
  • 24.09away · Cherepovets2:5
  • 22.09away · Shanghai2:3
  • 20.09away · Dinamo Minsk3:5

Khabarovsk

  • 29.09Niznekamsk1:0
  • 25.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl3:1
  • 23.09CSKA Moscow0:2
  • 21.09Cherepovets1:4
  • 19.09Dynamo Moscow4:0

Head to head

  • 29.01.2026Khabarovsk — Yekaterinburg5:2
  • 26.01.2026Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk4:2
  • 09.11.2025Khabarovsk — Yekaterinburg3:0
  • 01.10.2025Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk3:1
  • 20.02.2025Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk5:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1481523–20+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214
16Dynamo Moscow1662833–46-1314

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk4 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 117%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
  • Salavat UfaNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • NiznekamskBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9
  • Spartak MoscowMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →