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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Liberec — Sparta Prague

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Model prediction for 23 October

Liberec40%
Draw in regulation22%
Sparta Prague38%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Liberec 51%, Sparta Prague 49% including overtime.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Liberec — Sparta Prague2.5–2.4
Liberec to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Sparta Prague to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Liberec
  • Liberec goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Liberec

  • 11.10away · Ceske Budejovice3:4
  • 09.10Karlovy Vary5:0
  • 04.10away · Mlada Boleslav5:3
  • 02.10Olomouc2:0
  • 29.09away · Litvinov4:5 SO

Sparta Prague

  • 11.10Vitkovice3:0
  • 08.10Kometa Brno3:4 OT
  • 04.10away · Pardubice4:6
  • 01.10Ceske Budejovice4:2
  • 29.09away · Mountfield HK3:4

Head to head

  • 25.02.2026Liberec — Sparta Prague1:2 OT
  • 14.11.2025Liberec — Sparta Prague3:0
  • 09.11.2025Sparta Prague — Liberec4:3 OT
  • 28.09.2025Sparta Prague — Liberec1:3
  • 28.02.2025Sparta Prague — Liberec1:0

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKladno10322329–32-315
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSparta Prague10402431–28+314
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecCeske Budejovicepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • LitvinovPlzenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • VitkoviceKometa Brnopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
  • KladnoPardubicepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • Mountfield HKKarlovy Varypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →