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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Lokomotiv Orsha — Neman Grodno

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Model prediction and result

2:3 OTCame true
Lokomotiv Orsha33%
Draw in regulation22%
Neman Grodno45%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Neman Grodno to win (57% incl. overtime), came true.

Neman Grodno are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • Neman Grodno are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lokomotiv Orsha — Neman Grodno2.3–2.6
Lokomotiv Orsha to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Neman Grodno to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lokomotiv Orsha
  • Lokomotiv Orsha goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lokomotiv Orsha

  • 05.10away · Gomel2:5
  • 03.10away · Gomel3:4
  • 29.09Lida5:4 SO
  • 27.09Lida4:5
  • 24.09away · Vitebsk1:4

Neman Grodno

  • 06.10Novopolotsk4:1
  • 04.10Novopolotsk4:1
  • 29.09away · Brest2:4
  • 27.09away · Brest1:3
  • 24.09Molodechno0:1

Head to head

  • 02.03.2026Neman Grodno — Lokomotiv Orsha2:1
  • 28.02.2026Neman Grodno — Lokomotiv Orsha6:0
  • 19.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Neman Grodno1:2
  • 17.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Neman Grodno4:2
  • 25.02.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Neman Grodno3:2

Next match

  • Lokomotiv OrshaNeman Grodno11 October · Belarus Extraleague
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.7

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • MogilevGomel
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
  • NovopolotskMolodechno
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 1:6. Model's score: 1:3.4.4
  • BaranavichyVitebsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:4.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →