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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Baranavichy — Vitebsk

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Model prediction and result

4:2Missed
Baranavichy28%
Draw in regulation21%
Vitebsk51%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:2: the model's most likely outcome, Vitebsk to win (64% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 64% fails in about 36 matches out of 100 on average.

Vitebsk are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Vitebsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Baranavichy — Vitebsk2.3–2.9
Baranavichy to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Vitebsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Baranavichy
  • Baranavichy goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Baranavichy

  • 05.10away · Soligorsk5:4
  • 03.10away · Soligorsk2:4
  • 30.09Yunost Minsk5:0
  • 28.09Yunost Minsk5:2
  • 23.09Zhlobin2:1

Vitebsk

  • 05.10away · Slavutych3:4
  • 03.10away · Slavutych3:6
  • 30.09away · Mogilev2:0
  • 28.09away · Mogilev3:4
  • 24.09Lokomotiv Orsha4:1

Head to head

  • 24.01.2026Baranavichy — Vitebsk2:3
  • 22.01.2026Baranavichy — Vitebsk4:2
  • 31.10.2025Vitebsk — Baranavichy2:0
  • 29.10.2025Vitebsk — Baranavichy6:2
  • 24.12.2024Baranavichy — Vitebsk1:3

Next match

  • BaranavichyVitebsk11 October · Belarus Extraleague
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.2

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • MogilevGomel
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
  • NovopolotskMolodechno
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 1:6. Model's score: 1:3.4.4
  • Lokomotiv OrshaNeman Grodno
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →