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KHL · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Arena Metallurg

Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok

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Model prediction and result

2:5Missed
Magnitogorsk62%
Draw in regulation19%
Vladivostok19%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:5: the model's most likely outcome, Magnitogorsk to win (74% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 74% fails in about 26 matches out of 100 on average.

Magnitogorsk are clear favourites: 74% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

  • Magnitogorsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Magnitogorsk 5 wins, Vladivostok 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok3.4–2.0
Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)74%
Vladivostok to win (incl. OT and shootout)26%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)51%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Magnitogorsk
  • Magnitogorsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Magnitogorsk

  • 02.10away · Spartak Moscow2:0
  • 30.09away · Shanghai1:4
  • 28.09away · Avangard Omsk5:1
  • 26.09Bars Kazan2:1
  • 23.09away · Salavat Ufa4:3

Vladivostok

  • 03.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:6 SO
  • 01.10away · Cherepovets4:3 SO
  • 27.09Niznekamsk3:5
  • 23.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 21.09CSKA Moscow3:4 SO

Head to head

  • 22.02.2026Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok4:3 OT
  • 17.01.2026Vladivostok — Magnitogorsk4:8
  • 22.11.2025Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok4:3 SO
  • 05.11.2025Vladivostok — Magnitogorsk1:2
  • 19.03.2025Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok5:4 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk17131354–31+2327
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow15120350–27+2324
17Dynamo Moscow1762933–47-1414
18Vladivostok1453635–39-413
19Tractor Chelyabinsk1460830–35-512

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

  • MagnitogorskVladivostok7 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.4

KHL on the same day

  • LadaShanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Bars KazanLokomotiv Yaroslavl
    2The most likely outcome came true: 225%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
  • CSKA MoscowSalavat Ufa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • Dinamo MinskNizhny Novgorod
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →