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KHL · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Arena Metallurg

Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Magnitogorsk56%
Draw in regulation20%
Vladivostok24%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Magnitogorsk to win (69% incl. overtime), came true.

Magnitogorsk are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

  • Magnitogorsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Magnitogorsk 4 wins, Vladivostok 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok3.2–2.2
Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
Vladivostok to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Magnitogorsk
  • Magnitogorsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Magnitogorsk

  • 05.10Vladivostok2:5
  • 02.10away · Spartak Moscow2:0
  • 30.09away · Shanghai1:4
  • 28.09away · Avangard Omsk5:1
  • 26.09Bars Kazan2:1

Vladivostok

  • 05.10away · Magnitogorsk5:2
  • 03.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:6 SO
  • 01.10away · Cherepovets4:3 SO
  • 27.09Niznekamsk3:5
  • 23.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2

Head to head

  • 05.10.2026Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok2:5
  • 22.02.2026Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok4:3 OT
  • 17.01.2026Vladivostok — Magnitogorsk4:8
  • 22.11.2025Magnitogorsk — Vladivostok4:3 SO
  • 05.11.2025Vladivostok — Magnitogorsk1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
16Dynamo Moscow1662833–46-1314
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceVladivostok1453635–39-413
18Novosibirsk1553733–45-1213

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • MagnitogorskSalavat Ufa9 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 7:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • VladivostokLada10 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.9

KHL on the same day

  • NovosibirskSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • Dynamo MoscowShanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • SochiSpartak Moscow
    2The most likely outcome came true: 219%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:3.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →