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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · CPP Arena

Mountfield HK — Olomouc

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Mountfield HK59%
Draw in regulation20%
Olomouc21%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Mountfield HK to win (71% incl. overtime), came true.

Mountfield HK are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • Mountfield HK are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mountfield HK — Olomouc3.0–1.9
Mountfield HK to win (incl. OT and shootout)71%
Olomouc to win (incl. OT and shootout)29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Mountfield HK
  • Mountfield HK goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Mountfield HK

  • 09.10away · Trinec2:5
  • 04.10Vitkovice3:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kladno4:3 SO
  • 29.09Sparta Prague4:3
  • 27.09away · Plzen1:2

Olomouc

  • 09.10away · Litvinov1:3
  • 04.10Trinec0:9
  • 02.10away · Liberec0:2
  • 29.09Vitkovice3:4
  • 27.09away · Kladno4:1

Head to head

  • 27.02.2026Olomouc — Mountfield HK2:4
  • 30.12.2025Mountfield HK — Olomouc3:2
  • 17.11.2025Olomouc — Mountfield HK1:7
  • 30.09.2025Mountfield HK — Olomouc0:1
  • 21.02.2025Mountfield HK — Olomouc3:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117
14, Relegation play-offOlomouc10110818–36-185

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • LitvinovMountfield HK15 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • OlomoucKarlovy Vary16 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.5

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • Mlada BoleslavLitvinov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Karlovy VaryKladno
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • Kometa BrnoPlzen
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • PardubiceTrinec
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →