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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Mattoni Arena

Karlovy Vary — Kladno

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Karlovy Vary50%
Draw in regulation22%
Kladno28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Karlovy Vary to win (63% incl. overtime), came true.

Karlovy Vary are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

  • Karlovy Vary are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karlovy Vary — Kladno2.7–2.1
Karlovy Vary to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Kladno to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karlovy Vary
  • Karlovy Vary goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karlovy Vary

  • 09.10away · Liberec0:5
  • 04.10Plzen4:1
  • 02.10away · Vitkovice3:0
  • 28.09away · Sparta Prague1:0
  • 25.09Ceske Budejovice5:1

Kladno

  • 09.10Mlada Boleslav4:3
  • 04.10away · Litvinov3:2 OT
  • 02.10Mountfield HK3:4 SO
  • 29.09away · Trinec4:6
  • 27.09Olomouc1:4

Head to head

  • 27.02.2026Karlovy Vary — Kladno2:4
  • 30.12.2025Kladno — Karlovy Vary3:1
  • 16.11.2025Karlovy Vary — Kladno1:5
  • 30.09.2025Kladno — Karlovy Vary1:3
  • 23.02.2025Karlovy Vary — Kladno2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKladno10322329–32-315
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSparta Prague10402431–28+314

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • OlomoucKarlovy Vary16 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.5
  • KladnoKometa Brno16 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • Mlada BoleslavLitvinov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Kometa BrnoPlzen
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Mountfield HKOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • PardubiceTrinec
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →