NHL · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · UBS Arena
New York Islanders — Tampa Bay Lightning
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:5Came true
In short
Final score 3:5: the model's most likely outcome, Tampa Bay Lightning to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: New York Islanders 47%, Tampa Bay Lightning 53% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York Islanders — Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.6–2.7 | |
| New York Islanders to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 51% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap New York Islanders
- New York Islanders goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Chicago Blackhawks4:1
- 07.10away · New York Rangers2:5
- 04.10New Jersey Devils6:0
- 01.10away · Toronto Maple Leafs1:2
- 15.04Carolina Hurricanes1:2
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
- 02.10away · New York Rangers1:5
- 04.05Montreal Canadiens1:2
Head to head
- 13.12.2025New York Islanders — Tampa Bay Lightning3:2 SO
- 07.12.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — New York Islanders0:2
- 03.12.2025New York Islanders — Tampa Bay Lightning2:1
- 02.04.2025New York Islanders — Tampa Bay Lightning1:4
- 29.03.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — New York Islanders5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Next matches
- New York RangersTampa Bay Lightning14 October · NHL46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- New York IslandersVancouver Canucks14 October · NHL65351The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 50502The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- 29712The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
- 71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%3:6Final score 3:6. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%1:0SOFinal score 1:0 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1SOFinal score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →