KHL · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Novosibirsk — Barys Astana
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Close to a coin flip: Novosibirsk 51%, Barys Astana 49% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.3.
Facts
- League table: Novosibirsk — No. 15, 15 pts; Barys Astana — No. 6, 18 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Novosibirsk: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Novosibirsk 4 wins, Barys Astana 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Novosibirsk — Barys Astana | 2.4–2.3 | |
| Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 39% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 61% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Novosibirsk
- Novosibirsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
- 12.10away · Barys Astana3:2
- 10.10away · Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1
- 07.10Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
- 04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
- 14.10Yekaterinburg4:1
- 12.10Novosibirsk2:3
- 10.10Avangard Omsk5:1
- 04.10away · Spartak Moscow4:3 SO
- 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
Head to head
- 12.10.2026Barys Astana — Novosibirsk2:3
- 07.09.2026Barys Astana — Novosibirsk7:1
- 20.03.2026Novosibirsk — Barys Astana2:1 SO
- 07.12.2025Barys Astana — Novosibirsk1:2 SO
- 01.12.2025Novosibirsk — Barys Astana4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 15 | 9 | +17 | 18 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Novosibirsk | 16 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 16, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 14 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
KHL on the same day
- 44562The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- 22782The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 1:34.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →