KHL · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Novosibirsk — Barys Astana
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Close to a coin flip: Novosibirsk 51%, Barys Astana 49% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Novosibirsk — Barys Astana | 2.4–2.3 | |
| Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 39% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Novosibirsk
- Novosibirsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Barys Astana3:2
- 10.10away · Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1
- 07.10Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
- 04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
- 02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
- 12.10Novosibirsk2:3
- 10.10Avangard Omsk5:1
- 04.10away · Spartak Moscow4:3 SO
- 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
- 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
Head to head
- 12.10.2026Barys Astana — Novosibirsk2:3
- 07.09.2026Barys Astana — Novosibirsk7:1
- 20.03.2026Novosibirsk — Barys Astana2:1 SO
- 07.12.2025Barys Astana — Novosibirsk1:2 SO
- 01.12.2025Novosibirsk — Barys Astana4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 14 | 8 | +14 | 16 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 18 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
KHL on the same day
- 43572The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- 22782The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 1:34.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →