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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Behrn Arena

Orebro — Vaxjo

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Model prediction and result

4:2Missed
Orebro38%
Draw in regulation22%
Vaxjo40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:2: the model's most likely outcome, Vaxjo to win (52% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: Orebro 48%, Vaxjo 52% including overtime.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Orebro — Vaxjo2.5–2.6
Orebro to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Vaxjo to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Orebro
  • Orebro goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Orebro

  • 08.10away · Djurgarden1:2
  • 03.10Lulea1:4
  • 01.10away · HV 711:2 OT
  • 26.09Skelleftea3:0
  • 24.09IF Bjorkloven3:4 OT

Vaxjo

  • 08.10Linkoping0:3
  • 03.10Rogle3:2
  • 01.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:4
  • 26.09HV 717:5
  • 24.09away · Djurgarden3:4 OT

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026Vaxjo — Orebro3:2 OT
  • 22.01.2026Orebro — Vaxjo0:1 OT
  • 22.11.2025Orebro — Vaxjo4:3 SO
  • 25.09.2025Vaxjo — Orebro4:1
  • 17.03.2025Vaxjo — Orebro3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle8310420–18+211
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • MalmoOrebro15 October · SHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
  • VaxjoSkelleftea15 October · SHL
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.1

SHL on the same day

  • FarjestadMalmo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 6:2. Model's score: 3:1.5.2
  • HV 71Brynas
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
  • LuleaTimra
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • DjurgardenLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • IF BjorklovenFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.8
  • SkellefteaRogle
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →