SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Rogle — Orebro

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Model prediction for 17 October

Rogle55%
Draw in regulation21%
Orebro24%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Rogle are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • Rogle are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rogle — Orebro2.9–1.9
Rogle to win (incl. OT and shootout)68%
Orebro to win (incl. OT and shootout)32%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Rogle
  • Rogle goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Rogle

  • 10.10away · Skelleftea2:3
  • 08.10HV 714:3
  • 03.10away · Vaxjo2:3
  • 01.10Timra4:1
  • 26.09Linkoping2:1 OT

Orebro

  • 10.10Vaxjo4:2
  • 08.10away · Djurgarden1:2
  • 03.10Lulea1:4
  • 01.10away · HV 711:2 OT
  • 26.09Skelleftea3:0

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Rogle — Orebro2:3 OT
  • 03.01.2026Orebro — Rogle3:4
  • 29.11.2025Orebro — Rogle4:3
  • 04.10.2025Rogle — Orebro5:3
  • 11.02.2025Orebro — Rogle3:4

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsBrynas8400423–18+512
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle8310420–18+211
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:44.9
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →