Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, MSK
SaiPa — JYP
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
SaiPa are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- SaiPa are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SaiPa — JYP | 3.1–2.5 | |
| SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 60% | |
| JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 40% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap SaiPa
- SaiPa goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Kiekko-Espoo1:6
- 08.10away · SaiPa2:1
- 03.10away · TPS Turku1:4
- 02.10away · Hameenlinna1:2
- 25.09away · IFK Helsinki4:3
Head to head
- 08.10.2026SaiPa — JYP1:2
- 21.01.2026SaiPa — JYP2:3 OT
- 20.12.2025JYP — SaiPa1:2
- 28.11.2025JYP — SaiPa3:7
- 17.10.2025SaiPa — JYP1:2 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Karpat | 13 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | JYP | 10 | 7 | +5 | 21 |
| 6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | SaiPa | 11 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
Liiga on the same day
- AssatIFK Helsinkipreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
- HameenlinnaKiekko-Espoopreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- LukkoKooKoopreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- TapparaIlvespreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- TPS TurkuPelicanspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
- KalPaJokeritpreliminary73271The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →