Swiss National League (hockey) · Tuesday, 20 October, 20:45 MSK

Servette — Lugano

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Model prediction for 20 October

Servette44%

Draw in regulation22%

Lugano34%

Model estimate at 17:28 MSK

In short

Servette are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

Servette are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.4.

Facts

League table: Servette — No. 2, 21 pts; Lugano — No. 6, 15 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Servette: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Servette 1 win, Lugano 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Servette — Lugano		2.7–2.4
Servette to win (incl. OT and shootout)		56%
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Servette
Servette goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Servette

10.10Davos3:2
04.10Zug2:1
02.10away · Bern3:2 SO
30.09away · Lausanne5:6 SO
29.09EHC Kloten4:0

Lugano

10.10away · Biel3:2
09.10Zurich2:3 OT
07.10away · Lausanne5:2
04.10away · Ajoie4:5
02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2

Head to head

15.09.2026Lugano — Servette6:3
31.01.2026Lugano — Servette5:1
08.01.2026Servette — Lugano2:1 OT
01.11.2025Lugano — Servette6:2
03.10.2025Servette — Lugano1:5

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	10	7	3	0	0	42–24	+18	27
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Servette	11	5	2	2	2	33–29	+4	21
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
Ambri-PiottaFribourg
4258
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.1
20:45
BernLangnau Tigers
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
20:45
BielRapperswil-Jona
5941
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
20:45
EHC KlotenLausanne
4258
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8
20:45
ZurichDavos
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →