KHL · Friday, 30 October, 19:30 MSK

Shanghai — Barys Astana

Model prediction for 30 October

Shanghai42%

Draw in regulation22%

Barys Astana36%

Model estimate at 05:06 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Shanghai 53%, Barys Astana 47% including overtime.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Shanghai — Barys Astana		2.8–2.6
Shanghai to win (incl. OT and shootout)		53%
Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)		47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Shanghai
Shanghai goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Shanghai

12.10Dinamo Minsk2:3
07.10away · Dynamo Moscow3:2
05.10away · Lada5:0
03.10away · Cherepovets1:2 OT
30.09Magnitogorsk4:1

Barys Astana

12.10Novosibirsk2:3
10.10Avangard Omsk5:1
04.10away · Spartak Moscow4:3 SO
02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4

Head to head

07.03.2026Shanghai — Barys Astana4:8
20.02.2026Barys Astana — Shanghai3:4 OT
19.12.2024Shanghai — Barys Astana2:0
29.10.2024Barys Astana — Shanghai0:2
10.11.2023Barys Astana — Shanghai1:2

Full record: 26 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Niznekamsk	15	8	2	5	47–38	+9	18
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Shanghai	12	8	1	3	36–29	+7	17
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	SKA St. Petersburg	14	8	1	5	47–44	+3	17
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Dinamo Minsk	15	6	5	4	42–48	-6	17
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Barys Astana	14	8	0	6	54–40	+14	16
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Spartak Moscow	14	7	2	5	36–28	+8	16

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

KHL on the same day

18:00
LadaAvangard Omskpreliminary
2872
2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 1:34.9
19:00
Bars KazanKhabarovskpreliminary
6535
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6
19:00
CherepovetsSpartak Moscowpreliminary
5248
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
19:10
Dinamo MinskTractor Chelyabinskpreliminary
6139
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →