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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — Kaluga

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Model prediction for 28 October

SKA-VMF St. Petersburg37%
Draw in regulation26%
Kaluga37%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: SKA-VMF St. Petersburg 50%, Kaluga 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 16%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 1.7 and 1.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — Kaluga1.7–1.7
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Kaluga to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)16%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)84%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
  • SKA-VMF St. Petersburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

SKA-VMF St. Petersburg

  • 12.10away · CSK VVS5:0
  • 05.10Dinamo St. Petersburg3:0
  • 02.10away · Khimik0:1
  • 30.09away · Zvezda Moscow3:1
  • 20.09Gornyak3:1

Kaluga

  • 12.10Orsk1:2 SO
  • 07.10away · Perm3:1
  • 05.10away · Toros Neftekamsk1:0
  • 03.10away · Izhevsk3:1
  • 01.10away · Olympia3:2 OT

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
8, PlayoffsKaluga1383229–19+1019
9, PlayoffsKhimik1482446–28+1818
10, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg1280432–21+1116
11, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • PermRubin Tyumenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • Toros NeftekamskHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:23.8
  • Buran VoronezhOlympiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →