VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Wednesday, 28 October, 17:00 MSK

Perm — Rubin Tyumen

Model prediction for 28 October

Perm41%

Draw in regulation24%

Rubin Tyumen35%

Model estimate at 20:53 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Perm are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Perm — Rubin Tyumen		2.1–2.0
Perm to win (incl. OT and shootout)		53%
Rubin Tyumen to win (incl. OT and shootout)		47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		73%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Perm
Perm goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Perm

12.10away · HC Norilsk1:3
07.10Kaluga1:3
05.10AKM3:0
03.10Ryazan1:0
25.09away · Bars4:0

Rubin Tyumen

13.10Tambov3:2 OT
11.10Buran Voronezh4:3 SO
03.10away · Omskie Krylia3:4
01.10away · Kurgan3:2 SO
27.09HC Yugra4:3

Head to head

20.12.2025Perm — Rubin Tyumen0:4
17.11.2025Rubin Tyumen — Perm3:2 SO
26.02.2025Perm — Rubin Tyumen2:3
24.09.2024Rubin Tyumen — Perm6:0
21.12.2023Perm — Rubin Tyumen3:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10, Playoffs	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	12	8	0	4	32–21	+11	16
11, Playoffs	Perm	12	8	0	4	30–23	+7	16
12, Playoffs	Tambov	13	7	2	4	34–34	0	16
18	Ryazan	15	5	4	6	30–32	-2	14
19	Rubin Tyumen	12	7	0	5	29–32	-3	14
20	Dinamo St. Petersburg	13	6	1	6	37–42	-5	13

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

17:00
Toros NeftekamskHC Yugrapreliminary
2971
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:23.8
19:00
Buran VoronezhOlympiapreliminary
6436
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.4
19:00
SKA-VMF St. PetersburgKalugapreliminary
5050
2The model's most likely outcome: 226%Model's score: 1:23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →