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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Slavutych — Vitebsk

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Model prediction and result

4:3Came true
Slavutych60%
Draw in regulation19%
Vitebsk21%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Slavutych to win (72% incl. overtime), came true.

Slavutych are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Slavutych are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Slavutych — Vitebsk3.4–2.2
Slavutych to win (incl. OT and shootout)72%
Vitebsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)28%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Slavutych
  • Slavutych goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Slavutych

  • 03.10Vitebsk6:3
  • 30.09Soligorsk5:1
  • 28.09Soligorsk4:3 SO
  • 23.09away · Yunost Minsk4:1
  • 21.09away · Yunost Minsk5:3

Vitebsk

  • 03.10away · Slavutych3:6
  • 30.09away · Mogilev2:0
  • 28.09away · Mogilev3:4
  • 24.09Lokomotiv Orsha4:1
  • 22.09Lokomotiv Orsha3:0

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Slavutych — Vitebsk6:3
  • 11.02.2026Slavutych — Vitebsk2:1 SO
  • 09.02.2026Slavutych — Vitebsk1:3
  • 06.11.2025Vitebsk — Slavutych3:0
  • 04.11.2025Vitebsk — Slavutych0:1

Next matches

  • BaranavichyVitebsk9 October · Belarus Extraleague
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:4.5.2
  • SlavutychLida10 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.9

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • SoligorskBaranavichy
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 113%Final score 4:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.9
  • GomelLokomotiv Orsha
    1The most likely outcome came true: 116%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →