KHL · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are clear favourites: 78% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.
Why
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 1.4.
Facts
- League table: Sochi — No. 21, 6 pts; Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — No. 3, 22 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Sochi 0 wins, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 5.
- Days of rest before the match: Sochi 5, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 1.4–2.7 | |
| Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 22% | |
| Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 78% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 27% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 73% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Sochi
- Sochi goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 12.10away · Bars Kazan3:2
- 09.10Spartak Moscow0:2
- 07.10Spartak Moscow2:5
- 03.10Nizhny Novgorod0:6
- 30.09Salavat Ufa6:3
- 10.10Dinamo Minsk6:1
- 05.10away · Bars Kazan2:0
- 03.10away · Dinamo Minsk3:4
- 30.09Novosibirsk3:1
- 27.09away · Novosibirsk2:1
Head to head
- 04.03.2026Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3
- 14.02.2026Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2 OT
- 01.02.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Sochi3:0
- 22.09.2025Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Sochi5:0
- 02.03.2025Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 14 | 11 | +15 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
| 22 | Lada | 15 | 1 | -35 | 6 |
KHL on the same day
- 43572The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- 51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →