KHL · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Spartak Moscow — Cherepovets
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Spartak Moscow are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.
Why
- Spartak Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- League table: Spartak Moscow — No. 8, 18 pts; Cherepovets — No. 4, 20 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Spartak Moscow: 3 wins in a row; Cherepovets: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 3 wins, Cherepovets 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Spartak Moscow — Cherepovets | 2.7–2.4 | |
| Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 44% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Spartak Moscow
- Spartak Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Khabarovsk2:1
- 09.10away · Sochi2:0
- 07.10away · Sochi5:2
- 04.10Barys Astana3:4 SO
- 02.10Magnitogorsk0:2
- 13.10SKA St. Petersburg2:0
- 10.10away · Bars Kazan4:1
- 08.10away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2
- 06.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:2
- 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
Head to head
- 12.09.2026Spartak Moscow — Cherepovets8:0
- 02.02.2026Cherepovets — Spartak Moscow1:5
- 06.01.2026Cherepovets — Spartak Moscow1:2
- 14.11.2025Spartak Moscow — Cherepovets3:4
- 11.09.2025Spartak Moscow — Cherepovets1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 14 | 11 | +15 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | SKA St. Petersburg | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
KHL on the same day
- Tractor ChelyabinskBars Kazanpreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
- YekaterinburgCSKA Moscowpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.2
- LadaShanghaipreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
- Lokomotiv YaroslavlDynamo Moscowpreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:13.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →