AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · MassMutual Center
Springfield Thunderbirds — Charlotte Checkers
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2 SOCame true
In short
Final score 1:2 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Charlotte Checkers to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.
Charlotte Checkers are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- Charlotte Checkers are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.3.
- Springfield Thunderbirds: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Springfield Thunderbirds 3 wins, Charlotte Checkers 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Springfield Thunderbirds — Charlotte Checkers | 2.3–3.1 | |
| Springfield Thunderbirds to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 35% | |
| Charlotte Checkers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 65% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Springfield Thunderbirds
- Springfield Thunderbirds goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Laval Rocket2:5
- 04.10away · Providence Bruins2:0
- 04.10away · Wilkes-Barre/Scranton3:2 OT
- 24.05away · Wilkes-Barre/Scranton1:8
- 22.05Wilkes-Barre/Scranton2:0
- 11.10away · Providence Bruins2:6
- 04.10away · Hershey Bears2:3
- 04.10away · Hershey Bears5:2
- 26.04Springfield Thunderbirds1:2 OT
- 25.04Springfield Thunderbirds2:5
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Charlotte Checkers — Springfield Thunderbirds1:2 OT
- 25.04.2026Charlotte Checkers — Springfield Thunderbirds2:5
- 23.04.2026Charlotte Checkers — Springfield Thunderbirds8:1
- 01.03.2026Springfield Thunderbirds — Charlotte Checkers5:1
- 28.02.2026Springfield Thunderbirds — Charlotte Checkers2:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Iowa Wild | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | .625 |
| 17 | Springfield Thunderbirds | 4 | 2 | -1 | 5 | .625 |
| 18 | Hartford Wolf Pack | 5 | 3 | -3 | 6 | .600 |
| 20 | Bakersfield Condors | 4 | 2 | +1 | 4 | .500 |
| 21 | Charlotte Checkers | 4 | 2 | -1 | 4 | .500 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
Next matches
- Charlotte CheckersHartford Wolf Pack17 October · AHL69311The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.5
- Springfield ThunderbirdsLehigh Valley Phantoms17 October · AHL50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →