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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Tappara — Ilves

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Model prediction for 30 October

Tappara45%
Draw in regulation22%
Ilves33%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tappara are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tappara — Ilves2.8–2.4
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Tappara
  • Tappara goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Tappara

  • 10.10TPS Turku4:3 SO
  • 09.10away · KalPa3:2
  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4

Ilves

  • 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
  • 09.10Lukko1:5
  • 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
  • 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
  • 29.09Jukurit3:2

Head to head

  • 27.04.2026Ilves — Tappara3:4
  • 25.04.2026Tappara — Ilves2:1 OT
  • 23.04.2026Ilves — Tappara1:5
  • 21.04.2026Tappara — Ilves3:2
  • 19.04.2026Ilves — Tappara6:0

Full record: 28 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • HameenlinnaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • LukkoKooKoopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • SaiPaJYPpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
  • TPS TurkuPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • KalPaJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →