AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Adirondack Bank Center
Utica Comets — Rochester Americans
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Utica Comets to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Utica Comets 50%, Rochester Americans 50% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.7.
- Rochester Americans: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Utica Comets — Rochester Americans | 2.8–2.7 | |
| Utica Comets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Rochester Americans to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Utica Comets
- Utica Comets goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10away · Providence Bruins2:1
- 19.04away · Providence Bruins4:2
- 18.04Providence Bruins4:1
- 16.04away · Belleville Senators3:0
- 12.04away · Syracuse Crunch1:5
- 10.10Syracuse Crunch7:1
- 04.10away · Belleville Senators2:3 SO
- 03.10Toronto Marlies3:1
- 26.04away · Toronto Marlies2:4
- 25.04Toronto Marlies4:0
Head to head
- 12.03.2026Rochester Americans — Utica Comets1:4
- 15.02.2026Rochester Americans — Utica Comets4:7
- 15.02.2026Utica Comets — Rochester Americans1:4
- 08.02.2026Utica Comets — Rochester Americans1:5
- 24.01.2026Rochester Americans — Utica Comets3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utica Comets | 3 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Milwaukee Admirals | 2 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 1.000 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 14 | Rochester Americans | 4 | 2 | +6 | 5 | .625 |
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
Next matches
- Belleville SenatorsUtica Comets12 October · AHL47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:4, exactly right.5.8
- Hamilton HammersRochester Americans17 October · AHL47532The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:46.3
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
- 49512The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:2Final score 6:2. Model's score: 2:3.4.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →