Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 23 October, 20:45 MSK

Zug — Lausanne

Model prediction for 23 October

Zug42%

Draw in regulation22%

Lausanne35%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zug are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zug — Lausanne		2.6–2.4
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		54%
Lausanne to win (incl. OT and shootout)		46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Zug
Zug goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Zug

11.10away · EHC Kloten3:1
04.10away · Servette1:2
29.09away · Rapperswil-Jona5:2
25.09away · Langnau Tigers3:5
22.09away · Lugano2:3 OT

Lausanne

10.10away · Rapperswil-Jona4:1
07.10Lugano2:5
03.10away · Zurich2:3 OT
02.10Biel7:4
30.09Servette6:5 SO

Head to head

15.09.2026Lausanne — Zug0:5
30.01.2026Zug — Lausanne1:4
02.01.2026Lausanne — Zug7:0
22.11.2025Lausanne — Zug5:2
03.10.2025Zug — Lausanne4:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26–32	-6	15
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
AjoieServettepreliminary
3763
2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
20:45
DavosBernpreliminary
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
20:45
FribourgBielpreliminary
6832
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2
20:45
LuganoEHC Klotenpreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.9
20:45
Rapperswil-JonaAmbri-Piottapreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
20:45
ZurichLangnau Tigerspreliminary
6832
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →