Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Djokovic N. — Hurkacz H.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Djokovic N.75%
Hurkacz H.25%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Djokovic N. to win (75%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 75% fails in about 25 matches out of 100 on average.

Djokovic N. are clear favourites: 75% against 25% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Djokovic N. 1986, Hurkacz H. 1739.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Djokovic N. games
  • Hurkacz H. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Djokovic N.

  • 06.10De Minaur A.1:0
  • 05.10Medvedev D.1:0
  • 04.10Zverev A.2:1
  • 02.10Bu Y.2:1
  • 30.09Borges N.2:0

Hurkacz H.

  • 08.10Duckworth J.2:0
  • 05.10De Minaur A.0:1
  • 04.10Khachanov K.2:0
  • 02.10Gea A.2:1
  • 01.10Tien L.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Hurkacz H.Zhou Y.11 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →