Tennis: WTA, Beijing, hard · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK

Gauff C. — Mertens E.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Gauff C.80%
Mertens E.20%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Gauff C. to win (80%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 80% fails in about 20 matches out of 100 on average.

Gauff C. are clear favourites: 80% against 20% for the opponent.

Over 19.5 games — 47%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Gauff C. 1952, Mertens E. 1723.

Probabilities

Games over 19.547%
Games under 19.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Gauff C. games
  • Mertens E. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Gauff C.

  • 05.10Sun X.2:0
  • 03.10Osorio C.2:1

Mertens E.

  • 05.10Ostapenko J.2:1
  • 03.10Volynets K.2:1
  • 25.09Chwalinska M.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Mertens E.Swiatek I.9 October · WTA · Beijing
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.19.5

WTA on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.20.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →