Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Gea A. — Humbert U.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Gea A.54%
Humbert U.46%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Gea A. to win (54%), came true.

Gea A. are slightly stronger: 54% against 46%.

Over 23.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Gea A. 1631, Humbert U. 1681.

Probabilities

Games over 23.549%
Games under 23.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Gea A. games
  • Humbert U. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Gea A.

  • 07.10Faria J.2:1
  • 02.10Hurkacz H.1:2
  • 30.09Zhang Z.2:0
  • 29.09Machac T.2:0
  • 28.09Te R.2:0

Humbert U.

  • 03.10Lehecka J.1:2
  • 01.10Nakashima B.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Shelton B.Gea A.11 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.24.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:021.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →