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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Baluan Sholak Sports Palace

Almaty — Gornyak Rudny

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Model prediction and result

5:2Missed
Almaty25%
Draw in regulation20%
Gornyak Rudny55%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:2: the model's most likely outcome, Gornyak Rudny to win (67% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 67% fails in about 33 matches out of 100 on average.

Gornyak Rudny are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Gornyak Rudny are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.3.
  • Almaty: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almaty — Gornyak Rudny2.3–3.2
Almaty to win (incl. OT and shootout)33%
Gornyak Rudny to win (incl. OT and shootout)67%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Almaty
  • Almaty goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Almaty

  • 11.10Gornyak Rudny0:3
  • 07.10away · Beibarys Atyrau3:5
  • 06.10away · Beibarys Atyrau4:1
  • 03.10away · Kokshetau2:3
  • 02.10away · Kokshetau2:1

Gornyak Rudny

  • 11.10away · Almaty3:0
  • 07.10Karaganda1:4
  • 06.10Karaganda5:3
  • 03.10Aktobe7:1
  • 02.10Aktobe3:1

Head to head

  • 11.10.2026Almaty — Gornyak Rudny0:3
  • 25.01.2026Gornyak Rudny — Almaty7:3
  • 24.01.2026Gornyak Rudny — Almaty5:2
  • 15.12.2025Gornyak Rudny — Almaty4:3 OT
  • 14.12.2025Gornyak Rudny — Almaty4:5 OT

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsKokshetau18131464–43+2127
4, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny18121571–44+2725
5, PlayoffsKaraganda18112573–44+2924
6, PlayoffsKulager1894564–52+1222
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

  • AlmatyGornyak Rudny15 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.6

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoPavlodar
    1The most likely outcome came true: 10%Final score 8:0. Model's score: 12:1.10.2
  • AktobeBeibarys Atyrau
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →