Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Saturday, 24 October, 15:00 MSK

Gornyak Rudny — Nomad Astana

Model prediction for 24 October

Gornyak Rudny30%

Draw in regulation20%

Nomad Astana50%

Model estimate at 21:19 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Nomad Astana are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.

Why

Nomad Astana are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.6.

Facts

League table: Gornyak Rudny — No. 5, 25 pts; Nomad Astana — No. 1, 34 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Gornyak Rudny 2 wins, Nomad Astana 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gornyak Rudny — Nomad Astana		2.6–3.3
Gornyak Rudny to win (incl. OT and shootout)		38%
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)		62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		59%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		41%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Gornyak Rudny
Gornyak Rudny goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Gornyak Rudny

12.10away · Almaty2:5
11.10away · Almaty3:0
07.10Karaganda1:4
06.10Karaganda5:3
03.10Aktobe7:1

Nomad Astana

11.10away · Kokshetau4:2
10.10away · Kokshetau2:3 OT
07.10away · Torpedo3:2 SO
06.10away · Torpedo3:2 OT
02.10Kulager5:4 SO

Head to head

07.09.2026Nomad Astana — Gornyak Rudny4:2
06.09.2026Nomad Astana — Gornyak Rudny3:4 OT
03.02.2026Gornyak Rudny — Nomad Astana3:0
02.02.2026Gornyak Rudny — Nomad Astana4:7
24.10.2025Gornyak Rudny — Nomad Astana3:6

Full record: 21 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs	Nomad Astana	18	16	2	0	83–36	+47	34
2, Playoffs	Torpedo	18	13	2	3	88–36	+52	28
4, Playoffs	Karaganda	19	12	2	5	77–45	+32	26
5, Playoffs	Gornyak Rudny	18	12	1	5	71–44	+27	25
6, Playoffs	Kulager	18	9	4	5	64–52	+12	22

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

15:00
KaragandaBeibarys Atyraupreliminary
8416
1The model's most likely outcome: 115%Model's score: 4:15.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →