Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Saturday, 24 October, 17:00 MSK

Sparta Prague — Olomouc

Model prediction for 24 October

Sparta Prague67%

Draw in regulation18%

Olomouc16%

Model estimate at 11:59 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sparta Prague are clear favourites: 79% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

Sparta Prague are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

League table: Sparta Prague — No. 8, 14 pts; Olomouc — No. 14, 5 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Olomouc: 5 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Sparta Prague 4 wins, Olomouc 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sparta Prague — Olomouc		3.4–1.8
Sparta Prague to win (incl. OT and shootout)		79%
Olomouc to win (incl. OT and shootout)		21%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Sparta Prague

11.10Vitkovice3:0
08.10Kometa Brno3:4 OT
04.10away · Pardubice4:6
01.10Ceske Budejovice4:2
29.09away · Mountfield HK3:4

Olomouc

11.10away · Mountfield HK1:3
09.10away · Litvinov1:3
04.10Trinec0:9
02.10away · Liberec0:2
29.09Vitkovice3:4

Head to head

16.09.2026Olomouc — Sparta Prague2:5
26.01.2026Sparta Prague — Olomouc6:3
23.12.2025Sparta Prague — Olomouc7:2
31.10.2025Olomouc — Sparta Prague1:4
23.09.2025Olomouc — Sparta Prague4:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Kladno	10	3	2	2	3	29–32	-3	15
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Sparta Prague	10	4	0	2	4	31–28	+3	14
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Liberec	10	4	0	2	4	29–29	0	14
13	Vitkovice	9	2	0	1	6	21–32	-11	7
14, Relegation play-off	Olomouc	10	1	1	0	8	18–36	-18	5

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →