SuperLega (Italian volleyball) · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3)

Perugia — Padovabeta

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Model prediction for 28 October

Perugia99%
Padova1%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Perugia are clear favourites: 99% against 1% for the opponent.

The most likely score in sets is 3:0. The model expects about 136 points in the match. First set: Perugia — 91%.

Over 135.5 points — 51%.

Why

  • Elo rating by sets: Perugia 1853, Padova 1401; chance to win a single set: Perugia 91%.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Perugia 5 wins, Padova 0.

Probabilities

First set: Perugia91%
First set: Padova9%
Points over 135.551%
Points under 135.549%

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The chance of every score in sets, set handicaps and totals, every points total, the teams’ ratings and how the estimate moved before the match.

  • Score in sets
  • Sets handicap Perugia
  • Total sets
  • All points totals
  • Teams’ Elo ratings by sets
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Form

Perugia

  • 17.05Zawiercie3:0
  • 16.05away · Projekt Warszawa3:0
  • 06.05Lube Civitanova3:1
  • 03.05away · Lube Civitanova3:1
  • 30.04Lube Civitanova3:0

Padova

  • 08.04Monza0:3
  • 04.04away · Monza0:3
  • 25.02Piacenza3:2
  • 22.02away · Cuneo Volley3:2
  • 14.02away · Monza0:3

Head to head

  • 01.02.2026Padova — Perugia1:3
  • 29.10.2025Perugia — Padova3:0
  • 22.12.2024Perugia — Padova3:1
  • 06.10.2024Padova — Perugia2:3
  • 18.02.2024Padova — Perugia0:3

Full record: 6 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 99% will not happen in roughly 1 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →