LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Friday, 23 October, (UTC+3) · Gimnasio Manuel Bernardo Aguirre
Dorados — Fuerza Regia
Model prediction and result
120:116 OTMissed
In short
Final score 120:116 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Fuerza Regia to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.
Fuerza Regia are slightly stronger: 58% against 42%.
The model expects a score around 86:89 — 175 points in total.
Over 174.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Dorados −0.4, Fuerza Regia +3.8 points in regulation.
Facts
- Fuerza Regia: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Dorados 3 wins, Fuerza Regia 2.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Dorados — Fuerza Regia | 86.3–88.8 | |
| Total over 174.5 (incl. OT) | 50% | |
| Total under 174.5 (incl. OT) | 50% |
Form
- 20.10away · Fuerza Regia76:80
- 19.10away · Fuerza Regia90:101
- 13.10Gambusinos88:87
- 12.10Gambusinos98:83
- 08.10away · Freseros105:77
- 20.10Dorados80:76
- 19.10Dorados101:90
- 08.10away · Soles92:75
- 07.10away · Soles86:88
- 04.10away · Astros87:101
Head to head
- 20.10.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados80:76
- 19.10.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados101:90
- 07.08.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados86:92
- 06.08.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados67:96
- 25.07.2025Fuerza Regia — Dorados86:87
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →