LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Gimnasio Manuel Bernardo Aguirre
Dorados — Fuerza Regia
Model prediction and result
97:106Came true
In short
Final score 97:106: the model's most likely outcome, Fuerza Regia to win (57% incl. overtime), came true.
Fuerza Regia are slightly stronger: 57% against 43%.
The model expects a score around 87:90 — 177 points in total.
Over 176.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Dorados −0.3, Fuerza Regia +3.8 points in regulation.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Dorados 3 wins, Fuerza Regia 2.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Dorados — Fuerza Regia | 87.2–89.6 | |
| Total over 176.5 (incl. OT) | 49% | |
| Total under 176.5 (incl. OT) | 51% |
Form
- 23.10Fuerza Regia120:116
- 20.10away · Fuerza Regia76:80
- 19.10away · Fuerza Regia90:101
- 13.10Gambusinos88:87
- 12.10Gambusinos98:83
- 23.10away · Dorados116:120
- 20.10Dorados80:76
- 19.10Dorados101:90
- 08.10away · Soles92:75
- 07.10away · Soles86:88
Head to head
- 23.10.2026Dorados — Fuerza Regia120:116 OT
- 20.10.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados80:76
- 19.10.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados101:90
- 07.08.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados86:92
- 06.08.2026Fuerza Regia — Dorados67:96
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →