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NBA (National Basketball Association) · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)

Golden State Warriors — Miami Heat

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Model prediction for 6 November

Golden State Warriors66%
Miami Heat34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Golden State Warriors are clear favourites: 66% against 34% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 122:116 — 238 points in total.

Over 237.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Golden State Warriors without Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody: that costs the team about 8.8 points a game.
  • Miami Heat play the second night of a back-to-back: in NBA history that is worth about 1.7 points of margin.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Golden State Warriors 2 wins, Miami Heat 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Golden State Warriors — Miami Heat121.9–116.5
Total over 237.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 237.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, who may miss the game, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Golden State Warriors points
  • Miami Heat points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Who may miss the game
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Form

Golden State Warriors

  • 18.04away · Phoenix Suns96:111
  • 16.04away · Los Angeles Clippers126:121
  • 13.04away · Los Angeles Clippers110:115
  • 11.04away · Sacramento Kings118:124
  • 10.04Los Angeles Lakers103:119

Miami Heat

  • 15.04away · Charlotte Hornets126:127
  • 13.04Atlanta Hawks143:117
  • 11.04away · Washington Wizards140:117
  • 10.04away · Toronto Raptors114:128
  • 08.04away · Toronto Raptors95:121

Head to head

  • 20.01.2026Golden State Warriors — Miami Heat135:112
  • 20.11.2025Miami Heat — Golden State Warriors110:96
  • 26.03.2025Miami Heat — Golden State Warriors112:86
  • 08.01.2025Golden State Warriors — Miami Heat98:114
  • 27.03.2024Miami Heat — Golden State Warriors92:113

Full record: 14 meetings →

NBA on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →