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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Arena BUAP

Lobos Plateados — Freseros

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Model prediction and result

105:86Came true
Lobos Plateados80%
Freseros20%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 105:86: the model's most likely outcome, Lobos Plateados to win (80% incl. overtime), came true.

Lobos Plateados are clear favourites: 80% against 20% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 91:80 — 172 points in total.

Over 171.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Lobos Plateados −0.1, Freseros −9.4 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Freseros: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 4 meetings: Lobos Plateados 1 win, Freseros 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Lobos Plateados — Freseros91.3–80.2
Total over 171.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 171.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Lobos Plateados points
  • Freseros points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Lobos Plateados

  • 08.10away · El Calor de Cancun90:77
  • 07.10away · El Calor de Cancun68:77
  • 03.10away · Correcaminos90:85
  • 02.10away · Correcaminos97:75
  • 28.09Mineros81:84

Freseros

  • 08.10Dorados77:105
  • 07.10Dorados85:105
  • 03.10away · Santos87:108
  • 02.10away · Santos81:96
  • 27.09Panteras88:97

Head to head

  • 12.09.2026Lobos Plateados — Freseros86:90
  • 11.09.2026Lobos Plateados — Freseros71:82
  • 05.08.2024Lobos Plateados — Freseros100:91
  • 04.08.2024Lobos Plateados — Freseros92:94

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanteras28199.6792
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLobos Plateados281810.6433
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGambusinos281117.39310
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • Lobos PlateadosFreseros13 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 75:63. Model's score: —.172.5

LNBP on the same day

  • DoradosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 98:83. Model's score: —.166.4
  • AbejasSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:106. Model's score: —.176.0
  • MinerosDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 92:98. Model's score: —.168.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →