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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Gimnasio Marcelino Gonzalez

Mineros — Diablos Rojos

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Model prediction and result

92:98Missed
Mineros59%
Diablos Rojos41%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 92:98: the model's most likely outcome, Mineros to win (59% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.

Mineros are slightly stronger: 59% against 41%.

The model expects a score around 86:83 — 168 points in total.

Over 167.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Mineros −1.2, Diablos Rojos −2.4 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Diablos Rojos: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Mineros 2 wins, Diablos Rojos 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Mineros — Diablos Rojos85.6–82.7
Total over 167.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 167.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Mineros points
  • Diablos Rojos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Mineros

  • 08.10Santos82:93
  • 07.10Santos96:75
  • 03.10Abejas74:81
  • 02.10Abejas90:78
  • 28.09away · Lobos Plateados84:81

Diablos Rojos

  • 08.10away · Panteras92:93
  • 07.10away · Panteras76:77
  • 03.10away · Soles43:86
  • 02.10away · Soles93:84
  • 28.09Astros67:86

Head to head

  • 11.09.2026Mineros — Diablos Rojos98:85
  • 10.09.2026Mineros — Diablos Rojos75:81
  • 16.08.2025Mineros — Diablos Rojos85:92
  • 15.08.2025Mineros — Diablos Rojos82:64
  • 30.09.2024Diablos Rojos — Mineros107:97

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAbejas281216.4299
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSantos281117.39310
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDiablos Rojos281117.39310
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGambusinos281117.39310

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • MinerosDiablos Rojos13 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 97:86. Model's score: —.169.5

LNBP on the same day

  • DoradosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 98:83. Model's score: —.166.4
  • Lobos PlateadosFreseros
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 105:86. Model's score: —.171.5
  • AbejasSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:106. Model's score: —.176.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →