NBA (National Basketball Association) · Thursday, 29 October, MSK

Atlanta Hawks — Miami Heat

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Model prediction for 29 October

Atlanta Hawks57%
Miami Heat43%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Atlanta Hawks are slightly stronger: 57% against 43%.

The model expects a score around 119:117 — 236 points in total.

Over 235.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Pace: Atlanta Hawks 101.7, Miami Heat 103.9 possessions per 48 minutes.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Atlanta Hawks 1 win, Miami Heat 4.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Atlanta Hawks — Miami Heat119.1–116.7
Total over 235.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 235.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, who may miss the game, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • All totals
  • Atlanta Hawks points
  • Miami Heat points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Who may miss the game
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Form

Atlanta Hawks

  • 01.05New York Knicks89:140
  • 29.04away · New York Knicks97:126
  • 26.04New York Knicks98:114
  • 24.04New York Knicks109:108
  • 21.04away · New York Knicks107:106

Miami Heat

  • 15.04away · Charlotte Hornets126:127
  • 13.04Atlanta Hawks143:117
  • 11.04away · Washington Wizards140:117
  • 10.04away · Toronto Raptors114:128
  • 08.04away · Toronto Raptors95:121

Head to head

  • 13.04.2026Miami Heat — Atlanta Hawks143:117
  • 21.02.2026Atlanta Hawks — Miami Heat97:128
  • 04.02.2026Miami Heat — Atlanta Hawks115:127
  • 27.12.2025Atlanta Hawks — Miami Heat111:126
  • 19.04.2025Atlanta Hawks — Miami Heat114:123 OT

Full record: 34 meetings →

NBA on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →